In my latest DOS BT2 game, my next task involves taking my group to MD1, primarily to find 3 specific items which are known to exist in that location.
Would anybody care to guess / estimate how many wins (successful fights) it will take to find 3 specific, different items?
I estimate that it will take no more than 95 wins, based on the idea that there are 32 items unique to MD1, and I can find an average of 1.33 items per win.
For the record, I'll also say it will take 53 wins to find one of the three items, and 77 wins to find two of the three items.
Predicting item mining
My estimate was rather bad. It took 47 fights to find those 3 specific items. The first came after only 3 fights; the second after 12 fights. Found Bracers[4] finally after the 84th fight, it was the last of the 32 items.
I did a 2nd trial:
It took 80 fights to find those 3 specific items. The first came after 13 fights; the second after 27 fights. Found Kato's Bracer after the 80th fight. Unsure if all 32 items were found.
Accounting for both trials, I averaged slightly more than 1.2 items per fight, which was slightly lower than my estimate. However, I found the 3 desired items quicker than my estimate. Lucky me!
I did a 2nd trial:
It took 80 fights to find those 3 specific items. The first came after 13 fights; the second after 27 fights. Found Kato's Bracer after the 80th fight. Unsure if all 32 items were found.
Accounting for both trials, I averaged slightly more than 1.2 items per fight, which was slightly lower than my estimate. However, I found the 3 desired items quicker than my estimate. Lucky me!
